Our current, October 2011 vendor scorecard provides a qualitative rating for large systems vendors such as Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, Dell, IBM, EMC and Cisco. The note contrasts these ratings with quantitative MGI Index scores measuring business model efficiency and with growth and valuation parameters. The recent upheaval at HP provides an interesting backdrop to our rating scores. With a drop in HP stock, a number of analysts and investors have been turning positive on the company. We think that such enthusiasm is a bit premature. HP’s stock is cheap for a reason. In a related research note: “Who Benefits from HP Disarray?” we analyze the opportunities and threats for HP and its peer group.
HP customers, investors and business partners are beginning to feel like they are stuck in a bad remake of the movie "Groundhog Day". In the film, Bill Murray's character is stuck in time and keeps waking up to face the very same day, with the same challenges and problems.
Three of the last HP CEOs were forced out under some sort of a cloud (not the computing kind). After expelling Carly, Mark and Leo (these sound like hurricane names), the board rushed to hire Meg Whitman as CEO and appointed Ray Lane as the executive Chairman. The new team has a big mess to clean up. The Personal Systems division decision is likely to be reversed. The idea to get out of the PC business was probably not a bad one, but HP is totally unprepared for such a non-linear move. The Autonomy deal will likely go forward, but the acquisition better work, - HP has had a terrible track record of absorbing companies. The EDS purchase caused serious indigestion, and HP inherited a number of contractual issues with it. The list of HP acquisition orphans is long and unmemorable (except for high purchase prices).
In the meantime, competitors are circling the weakened HP turf. We believe, the company still has some time and room for maneuver, but a recovery will require signs of sure-footed, thoughtful, strategic decisions, - so far we have not seen any evidence of that, but one can hope...
In the new research report on HP, we dissect HP's current situation, assess chances for a sustained recovery and risks of market share loss to competitors in key areas such as processors, storage, software and services.
New Research: A significant amount of time, money and effort is spent in the evaluation, selection, negotiationand acquisition of technology assets. In spite of all of this effort, many companies chronically over-pay for those assetsand sign sub-optimal contractual agreements. Andrew Dailey of MGI Research recently conducted an in-depth interviewwith Joe Galuszka, a widely recognized expert in the area of IT Contract Optimization, Joe works directly with CIOs and CFOs to assist them in maximizing their negotiation leverage and achieving additional cost savings and advantageous contract terms and conditions. He has over 25 years of experience in the IT industry, and Joe’s negotiation experience spans both client buy-side and vendor sell-side engagements.
In a new research report "Three Key Trends Shaping Cloud Computing" we examine both the drivers as well as the barriers to cloud computing adoption. Several recent cyber security incidents spotlighted Cloud Computing vulnerabilities, generating questions about the durability of the overall adoption trend for the Cloud. The focus of the report is on the current intersection of cloud strategies of LOB users, central IT and cloud vendors and how pragmatic economic and technological factors are shaping their decisions with regard to Cloud adoption. We expect the pace of adoption for cloud computing to accelerate. The recent shift from confrontation to collaboration between central IT and the cloud providers, signals a removal of a significant road-block to cloud adoption. The focus of internal IT on virtualization first has now come into question as more users are looking at pursuing both mega-trends but not at the same speed and not for the same portions of their applications portfolio. The challenges posed by cloud security and management issues are serious, but are not the insurmountable barriers to broader adoption of cloud computing. Both the cloud as well as virtualization are driving a redefinition of the requirements landscape for security and management tools. This disruption creates a growth opportunity for cloud start-ups and a challenge for incumbent vendors of software and security tools such as CA, BMC, HPQ and IBM. We expect the re-acceleration in this space to benefit RAX, AMZN, CRM, CNQR, TLEO, KNXA, as well as the cybersecurity vendor group. This report is a must read for anyone interested in gaining an in-depth insight of the current business and technical trends that are shaping the opportunity for cloud computing.